Mission: snow day // Thunder Bay // Ontario
Snow day Thunder Bay: this morning
Threat level low: 1% chance of a snow day in Thunder Bay this morning. Pack your backpack: buses should run as usual.
Environment Canada forecast issued at 3:15 a.m. The chance is for buses cancelled or schools closed.
Intel report
Why 1%
No threats detected. Nothing in the forecast that usually stops buses: no real snow, ice, blowing snow or warnings before the morning run.
Raw forecast intel
The forecast behind it
Sunday night
Partly cloudy. Wind west 20 km/h becoming light this evening. Low minus 1.
Monday, October 26
Mainly sunny. High 7. UV index 2 or low.
Behind the scenes
How we read Thunder Bay’s forecast
Thunder Bay uses the Environment Canada forecast for Thunder Bay. We judge it with our Northern Ontario profile: in our model, about 22 cm of overnight snow gives an even chance of buses being cancelled, and freezing rain during the morning run counts heavily, as does a wind chill near -40. These starting numbers are re-tuned from each winter’s real decisions.
Forecast data: Environment and Climate Change Canada (Open Government Licence – Canada).
Agent briefing // FAQ
Questions people ask
+How does the snow day predictor work?
Every 15 minutes HQ decodes the latest Environment Canada city forecast for each place: snow amounts for the night and morning, the hourly conditions during the bus run, wind and blowing snow, morning wind chill, and any warnings in effect. Each clue becomes a chance, scaled for how easily buses stop in that kind of place (a rural route on hills cancels with way less snow than a big-city board), and the clues combine into one number.
+Is this the official decision?
No. Only your school board or its bus consortium makes the call. The predictor is our best estimate from the forecast. On the morning itself, the live bus status on our region pages comes straight from the official transportation sites.
+When is the official call made?
Transportation consortia usually decide early in the morning, before the first buses leave, and post it on their own website and social accounts. That is often between about 5:30 and 7:00 a.m. Check your region page for the live status.
+What is the difference between buses cancelled and a snow day?
In most of Ontario, a bad-weather morning cancels the buses but schools stay open for students who can get there safely. A full closure, where schools are closed to students, is rarer. The predictor gives the chance of either: buses cancelled or schools closed.